Ten years following the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that polarised the country and unleashed disorder, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two respected journalists from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly tense and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the political architecture of our islands remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Aims to Provoke Discussion
The duo have studied the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the issue with a series of public talks that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everyone, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose results have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an highly split population where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful are uncertain precisely what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue such a time is imminent, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and unionists minimise the possibility, making it uncertain whether or when there might be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has masked the shortage of serious debate, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to achieve it is mostly absent. Much has gone on in scholarly circles but hardly any elected officials or advocates are willing to participate with even the fundamentals. For instance, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, no writer supports unification or the existing arrangement. Each authors two articles that seek impartiality in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering economic and societal figures, historical precedents and structural examples.
Arguments encompass national emblems, duties, medical care, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The objective is to inform and stimulate conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there hasn't quite been a discussion," said O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an recognition of the notion that there could be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens claim they prefer unity but reject increased taxation or adopting a new flag to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government should work out what the proposal from Irish nationalism is other than just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
McBride thinks a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it may take place suddenly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a bad or a incompetent government minister who states: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have reasonable, justified perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and somebody will eventually not succeed but both parties has possesses something to gain from the opposing viewpoints."
Request for Broader Discussion
Westminster needed to join the dialogue, said the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish matter."
