Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the tension caused by the introduction of a new 28-point plan for ending the war appeared – briefly – to have been stabilised. A American diplomat spoke of "significant advancement" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its countermove: an extensive attack of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Peace Talks and Military Action
The chain of conflicting incidents captured the bleak nature of the recent timeframe. By day, political struggles are waged: optimistic declarations are released from various governments. Significant resources is devoted on restraining particular approaches. By night, Russian leadership brutally reminds the world that, for them, war remains the primary tool for achieving "settlement".
Nocturnal Warfare
As the offensive unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's defenselessness was laid bare. Ukraine is capable of detecting rocket firings from across the border, a ability enabled by up-to-date information. From witness perspectives, military aircraft that had been scrambled to engage hostile aerial threats flew past – advanced fighter aircraft delivered to Ukraine by NATO members.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons thundered: defensive missiles deployed against a Russian ballistic missile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, most likely provided by Western nations. Every deployment creates sudden vibrations, shaking the windows. The brief panic quickly gives way to sober acceptance: perhaps the hostile projectile won't cause damage this time, preventing destruction from devastation and further power outages.
Ongoing Risks
Soon after, a heavy machine gun engaged a drone close by, part of a defensive team – almost certainly imported technology. Regrettably, the shots failed to hit the enemy aircraft – it pressed on overhead toward its target.
Intermittently, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv greeted the daybreak reports: multiple fatalities, destruction and infrastructure problems in multiple buildings as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As typically, everyone still maintained normal activities – living the war. But those 24 hours illustrated Ukraine's vital need on international aid – a dependence that regional partners are clearly incapable to substitute in the short term.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The detailed framework from Washington provoked deep reactions, discussion and deep concern – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after prior negotiation attempts and bilateral conferences.
Every new proposal from Washington unfolds according to the same pattern: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, succeeds in resisting. They manage the tension but never actually win the battle. This trend will, certainly, continue.
Tactical Assessments
It is tempting to accuse specific actors of repeatedly advocating Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. Washington works based on a assumption well known to seasoned negotiators: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have lost on the battlefield. The American government presumes that it is unfeasible to force Russia to surrender the territory that it presently holds in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The problem is that while recognising this factual reality, Washington does nothing to discourage Russia, through diplomacy or military means, from believing that the current condition will not evolve additionally in its favour in the near future.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, the Kremlin is convinced that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its supporters are coming close to fatigue. Their motivation to agree to terms that does not give them the maximum possible gain is virtually nonexistent. There may be numerous efforts to achieve ceasefire, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leadership remains supremely confident in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still hold out, slowly losing people and territory but averting a complete military breakdown until circumstances change in its favour.
Present Conditions
Objectively, there are no genuine requirements for a truce. Now, subjective factors are coming into play: political desires to broker a ceasefire and secure international recognition, and Ukrainian leadership's twin challenges – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to unite the population around the country's interests against any initiative Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their priority does not move to internal issues. And although their mission will now be significantly challenging after latest incidents, it remains quite doubtful that this will modify their basic position.
These two forces are driving the talks.
Summary and Prospects
It took a just a single week to kill the 28 points of the most recent proposal. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by American leadership, pushback by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with soothing efforts of diplomats, and finally, current information leaks, all achieved their purpose.
While new plans based on established approaches are approaching, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off negotiation assaults from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and reflect certain reluctance to modify developments, if they maintain solidarity and strengthen their defence capabilities at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the predictable period, largely rely on sustained allied backing.
